Probabilistic Theory of Stock Exchanges

Kondratenko Anatoly

A new, universal system of exchange indices of assets, stock exchanges and the global system of exchanges has been developed. By analogy, the strategy of digitalization, forecasting and management of economies on the basis of digital platforms was developed for accumulating plans of economic agents and processing them using the formulas of probabilistic economic theory, which, if implemented, will in turn improve the quality of public administration of the economy of individual countries and the world as a whole.

The monograph demonstrates the importance and significance of stock exchanges as experimental economic laboratories, aimed primarily at testing models, evaluating parameters of models and, ultimately, verifying the existing and new economic theories. While the construction of probabilistic economic theory as an

«empirical» laboratory was to a certain extent backed up by the business, the practical 25-year experience of management of which was formalized by the mathematical body of theoretical physics, the development of probabilistic theory of stock exchanges in the study was based on MOEX and ICE as experimental economic laboratories. Step by step, the monograph reveals the enormous prospects for the further use of stock exchanges as powerful up-to-date experimental economic laboratories, which allow us to argue that just as theoretical physics emerged from the science of the solar system some 300–500 years ago, in the near future a modern economic science, consisting of closely interacting theoretical economics and experimental economics, will emerge from the development of stock exchange theory based on exchange experiments that will match all generally accepted standards for physical sciences, while remaining a human and social science.

Acknowledgments

The content of the book is a summary of the results of the project "Quantum Finance Investments of EXCELLENCE Investment Company" in Novosibirsk.

Project participants Vitaly Martynovich and Maria Makarkina contributed greatly to the project's success. Thus, the computer platform QUANTUM FINANCE for calculations of exchange structures using the probabilistic economic theory methods was developed by Vitaliy Martynovich and Maria Makarkina and implemented in C#. Maria Makarkina also provided substantial assistance in preparing this monograph for publication. The author sincerely thanks them for the fruitful cooperation for many years.

The author considers it his duty to thank Dmitry Sviridenko, who undertook the important work of the responsible editor of the monograph, and the reviewers of the monograph, Sergey Parinov and Yuri Perevyshin, for the challenging work of reviewing the manuscript with the new theory at a high professional level.

The author is grateful to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (Alexander von Humboldt – Stiftung), which provided a scholarship that enabled the author many years ago to witness for the first time how developed market economies work and how financial markets function in West Germany.

The author is grateful to Moscow Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange Futures Europe for providing access to historical data and online quotations.

The author is also grateful to the investment companies FINAM and Interactive Brokers for their excellent broker-intermediary functions with the IB and ICE exchanges, respectively.

The author sincerely thanks the first reader of the book manuscript, Konstantin Gluschenko, for critical comments, consideration of which made the material of the book more understandable for readers who hold fundamentally different orthodox economic views.

In conclusion, the author would like to take the opportunity, unfortunately, very late, to pay back some of his old debts.

First, the author would like to thank Vladimir Evstigneev for his informal but very informative and useful review of the author’s first paper on probabilistic economic theory in the collection of papers of the Russian Academy of Sciences and State Administration [Kondratenko, 2005] and Ksenia Kondratenko for her help in preparing the manuscript of this paper. Second, the author notes the important role that Professor George Judge of the University of California (Berkeley) played in this research by approving and enthusiastically supporting that very first paper 15 years ago, for which the author is immensely grateful.

Editor-in-chief

DSc in Physics and Mathematics Professor D.I. Sviridenko

Reviewers:

DSc S.I. Parinov

PhD Y.N. Perevyshin

All rights reserved. No part of the book or whole book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of the author.

FREQUENTLY USED SYMBOLS

Г– agent width

MOEX – Moscow Exchange

BRENT – Brent oil futures

C – normalization factors

D – demand

D(t, p, q) – probabilistic market demand function

D⁰(t) – total market demand function

ICE – Intercontinental Exchange Futures Europe

F(t, p, q) – probabilistic market deal function

M(t)– number of supply quotations

N(t) – number of demand quotations

MTV(t) – probabilistic market trade volume

P – price

p – independent price variable

p^M – probabilistic market price

q – independent quantity variable

q^M– probabilistic market quantity

Q – quantity

PQ – price and quantity

S – supply

SBER – Sberbank shares

S D – supply and demand

S(t, p, q) – probabilistic market supply function

S⁰(t) – total market supply function

t – independent time variable

TV(t) – trade volume