Единственная игра в городе: центральные банки, нестабильность и предотвращение следующего коллапса
Шрифт:
Где мы окажемся в итоге, зависит от выбора, а не от судьбы. Многое, конечно, будет зависеть от желания и способности правительств присоединиться к центральным банкам в выработке более ответственной политики - на национальном, региональном и многостороннем уровнях. Но это не значит, что остальные должны оставаться пассивными наблюдателями. Мы можем и должны многое сделать, чтобы улучшить перспективы хороших результатов, а также повысить нашу способность лучше ориентироваться в плохих результатах, если мир выйдет из "Т" по неправильной дороге. Нам нужно тратить гораздо больше времени
ПРИМЕЧАНИЯ
CHAPTER 2: THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN
1. Christian Noyer, “Central Banking: The Way Forward?,” opening speech to the International Symposium of the Banque de France, November 7, 2014, https://www.banque-france.fr/uploads/tx_bdfgrandesdates/Allocution-ouverture-Noyer-Symposium-7112014-EN.pdf.
2. Richard Milne, “Denmark Highlights Naked Truth About Negative Lending,” Financial Times, April 8, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7f4e2f4c-dde3-11e4-9d29-00144feab7de.html.
3. Ben S. Bernanke, “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank, August 27, 2010, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm.
4. I first came across this term, attributed to a “senior Citigroup executive,” in Landon Thomas, Jr., and Neil Gough, “Swiss Move Prompts Fears of Sustained Market Tumult,” New York Times, January 16, 2015, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/currency-traders-rattled-in-wake-of-swiss-central-bank-move.
CHAPTER 3: CENTRAL BANKS’ COMMUNICATION CHALLENGE
1. “Quarterly Review,” media briefing by Claudio Bario, head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Hyun Shin, economic adviser and head of research, Bank for International Settlements, December 5, 2014, http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1412_ontherecord.htm.
2. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets,” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
3. Alan Greenspan interview with Maria Bartiromo, CNBC, September 17, 2007.
4. Joseph M. Bessette and John J. Pitney, Jr., American Government and Politics: Deliberation, Democracy, and Citizenship (Andover, MA: Cengage Learning, 2011).
5. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets.” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
6. Neil Irwin, “The Goal of 2% Inflation, Rethought,” New York Times, December 21, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html.
7. “Central Banks Lift the Veil on More of Their Secrets,” Financial Times, December 14, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/64d1c072-8206-11e4-a9bb-00144feabdc0.html.
8. Nicholas Lemann, “The Hand on the Lever,” New Yorker, July 2014.
9. Binyamin Appelbaum, “Q. and A. With Charles Plosser of the Fed: Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later,” New York Times, January 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.
10. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Why This Market Rally Is So Unloved,” Bloomberg View, September 2, 2014, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-02/why-this-market-rally-is-so-unloved.
11. Jack Ewing and Binyamin Appelbaum, “A Stress Test for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank,” New York Times, January 3, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/stress-test-for-mario-draghi.html.
12. Janet Yellen, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm.
CHAPTER 4: HOW AND WHY THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED
1. Andrew G. Haldane, “Growing, Fast and Slow,” speech at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, February 17, 2015, http://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf.
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
PART II: CONTEXT: THE RISE, COLLAPSE, AND RESURRECTION OF CENTRAL BANKING
1. Martin Wolf, “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014,For a detailed analysis, see Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks: What We Have Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from the Financial Crisis (New York: Penguin Press, 2014).
CHAPTER 5: THE GOLDEN AGE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND “BUBBLISH FINANCE”
1. Joan Robinson, “The Economics of Hyperinflation,” Economic Journal 48 (September 1938).
2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
3. For an insightful discussion of this and more, please see Raghuram G. Rajan, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010).
4. “Paul Krugman: Here Are 5 Big Things Paul Krugman Says He Got Wrong Over the Years,” Business Insider, November 2014,insider.com/big-things-paul-krugman-got-wrong-economy-2014-11.
5. William C. Dudley, “Economics at the Federal Reserve,” remarks at the American Economic Association 2014 Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2014/dud140104.html.
6. Atef Mian and Amir Sufi, House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014).